Vancouver Blog - Kimmins & Associates

Welcome to the Kimmins and Associates blog for Vancouver, BC. This blog offers a stream of valuable information from our team of Downtown Vancouver Condo Experts. It provides insight on the local real estate market, reports on MLS listings and sales and highlights neighbourhood events and amenities. We will discuss news and information that is pertinent to condo owners and potential buyers. We will also keep you up to date on things happening around town, spotlight properties and display entertaining videos.

Bob Rennie says Vancouver real estate not a bubble

Written by Shaun Kimmins | May 18, 2012

Bob Rennie interview with Stephen Quinn (CBC):

Excerpt from The Vancouver Sun:

Condo king says talk of bubble just a lot of hot air

Bubble? What bubble?

That’s Vancouver condo marketing guru Bob Rennie’s take on concerns that the region’s real estate market is headed for a meltdown because of sky-high prices.

“It’s not a bubble,” said Rennie, director of Rennie Marketing Systems, in an interview following his keynote address to the Urban Development Institute Thursday.

“With the 80 per cent of the [condo] market that traded in [Metro] Vancouver last year, you only needed a household income of $52,800 to purchase. That’s not a bubble story.”

Rennie, who spoke to a full house about the state of the Vancouver property market, said aging baby boomers with billions of dollars in equity will become a much greater force in the condo market as they increasingly downsize from expensive single-detached homes, and put money aside for their children.

He also noted that the number of people between 55 and 64 will increase 38 per cent between 2009 and 2018, those between 65 and 74 will increase 56 per cent, while those between 35 and 54 will only increase by 4.6 per cent.

Because of that, he said, developers should shift their thinking into providing more larger one-bedroom condos to accommodate the downsizing boomers.

“I believe the leaner, meaner baby boomer is the game changer,” said Rennie. “Baby boomers are sitting on $88 billion in equity in Greater Vancouver and they’re looking at their retirement years. That equity will be freed up over the next 15 years [and] when they sell their home, they’ll buy down and help their kids.”

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged

Market Update: Home Sales Surge in Interior/North of BC

Written by Kimmins & Associates | May 15, 2012

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 12.5 per cent to $3.8 billion in April compared to the same month last year.

A total of 7,058 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 1.8 per cent from April 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $532,855, 10.9 per cent lower than a year ago.

“A ten per cent dip in Lower Mainland home sales offset a 14 per cent increase across the rest of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Kamloops, the Okanagan and the North all posted double-digit increases in home sales in April compared to levels one year ago.”

“The share of provincial sales garnered by Vancouver and the Fraser Valley declined from 65 per cent in April 2011 to 60 per cent last month,” added Muir. “A larger proportion of homes sold in less expensive regions contributed to the average BC sales price dipping nearly 11 per cent.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 15.8 per cent to $15 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 9.7 per cent to 23,782 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 6.8 per cent lower at $546,870.

 

BCREA’s latest Housing Market Update Podcast highlighting BC’s April MLS® stats:

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged

Housing bubble fears just hot air: Economist

Written by Kimmins & Associates | May 10, 2012

From the Surrey Leader:

Helmut Pastrick has heard the growing talk from other financial analysts that a real estate bubble or “craze” in Vancouver has left the condo market ripe for a crash.

So far, he doesn’t see it.

The Central 1 Credit Union chief economist instead says prices aren’t soaring dramatically and he expects continued stability over the short term in the Lower Mainland.

“The Vancouver market is still obviously very expensive,”

Pastrick said.

“But it’s not skyrocketing away from us. Nor is it likely to fall into the tank either.”

Lower Mainland home sales were down in April, but most prices are up modestly from a year ago, although some categories have sagged in recent months.

Nor does he see signs that builders are flooding the market with new units.

The risk as Pastrick sees it is not from over-inflated prices, but from global events – a new financial crisis in Europe or a war that sends oil prices spiking.

He said that could spark a new recession that drags down both real estate and stock markets.

“If there’s a global event, Canada will also feel it and the housing market will as well,”

he said, adding detached houses would fare better than condos.

Over the longer term, Pastrick doesn’t expect Metro Vancouver will suddenly become a more affordable place to own a home.

“When I look over the next 25 years, I expect prices will be higher,”

he said.

“I expect it will be even more difficult for many to enter the housing market.”

The proportion of people who rent instead of own will rise over time, he predicted, and builders will continue the trend of offering smaller units.

He also foresees more intergenerational households than in the past with larger extended families living under the same roof.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s benchmark price for all residential homes was up 2.8 per cent in the last three months to $683,000 in April, and is up 3.7 per cent from a year ago.

Detached house prices have been the strongest, up 6.3 per cent from a year ago, while condos were up just 1.1 per cent.

The federal government, wary that low interest rates important for economic recovery are leading consumers to take on too much debt and inflate home prices, has tightened mortgage lending rules a number of times since the 2009 recession.

Metro Vancouver home starts held steady in April and are up 16 per cent from a year ago to nearly 6,000.

Total building permits issued in the Lower Mainland were up nine per cent in March from the same period a year ago. That includes industrial and office construction.

Posted in Vancouver Market Update

Vancouver Real Estate – May Days and Million Dollar Sales

Written by Mike Cook | May 7, 2012

Vancouver’s downtown core areas continue a steady pace of home sales – despite our slow transition into typical spring weather.

Suite 502 at 535 Nicola Street, Vancouver is on the market for $4,988,000

Suite 502 at 535 Nicola Street, Vancouver is on the market for $4,988,000

The first long weekend of the summer is just weeks away, but a long way to go – before the camping gear is out and dusted off.  The Downtown, West End, Yaletown and Coal Harbour areas show no signs of slowing at the moment with the main “drivers” being low – record low -  interest rates, strong migration numbers to the lower mainland area – both from within Canada and abroad – and great selection covering all price ranges, both new and old. Just take a walk down Drake Street: 4 new developments are well past the dig and pour stage.

The Globe and Mail continues its constant forecast of a “bubble” or “crash” or “major market adjustment” for the Vancouver area.  Great – coming from someone who doesn’t live here and not seeing what is actually happening and why.  Using typical historic matrix modules – they are relying on past statistics.  No need to repeat. Vancouver has bucked just about every trend there is over the last 5 years.  And when I say Vancouver – there are extremely fine lines throughout the City that dictate home pricing -  in relation to the neighbourhood of choice.  Hence, local knowledge can challenge most articles being written from afar.

Since January of this year there have been 835 recorded sales in all 4 sub-areas of “Downtown Vancouver.”  The Downtown core shows 328 sales, Yaletown with 247 homes changing hands, the West End posting 163 and Coal Harbour in at 96.

The “Million Dollar” club is still rock steady.  The following will demonstrate just how views – both water and mountain – factor into pricing.  Of the total sales in the Coal Harbour area, 35% of these were above the million dollar mark.  Yaletown and the West End hovered in the 15% range and the Downtown shows 4.2% of sales – above one million dollars.  Determining factors: most are either on the waterfront or close to it, and/or have a view.  Whether it’s False Creek, English Bay or Burrard Inlet – water sells.

A look back

Interesting to see the number of sales over the past years – for the same time period – I speak of today.  2006 shows 1294 sales.  2007 produced 1300.  2008 in at 1090.  2009 – after the financial crisis – held at 868, very near where we are today.  2010 recovered nicely at 1112 sales and last year we saw 1129 for this same period.  A bit of a dip but when you live in paradise, these can be short lived.  So why the reduced numbers this year?  Simple. The frenzied buying of 2004-2007 is basically over – on some fronts.  Yes, there is a very strong off shore influence buying detached homes throughout the West Side but that – like most taps – could dry up at any moment.  All you really have to do is – it takes about 10 minutes on a bike – tour Drake Street, the Main and 2nd Avenue area and yes, behind the “old” Olympic Village up to the Cambie bridge – to see the amount of new product coming to market.  No need to enter into multiple offers these days – unless of course you find THE perfect home – that suits your needs.  No doubt the economy is playing a role as well.  Many who staved off disaster in 2008 – are seeing an extremely slow recovery.  Just walk Robson Street – the “for lease” signs – are now the most prominent brand on the block – even outnumbering Starbucks.

Tired of the endless news articles, unofficial blogs and predictions that stir up a very steady pot ?  Contact me anytime for a chat.  A stroll along the waterfront just may shed some light on what is really happening with the Vancouver real estate market.

Truth – like water – sells.

Posted in Vancouver Market Update, Vancouver News

Vancouver Marathon 2012 – A new route of stunning views and landmarks

Written by Kimmins & Associates | May 3, 2012

For the first time, in over a decade, the Vancouver Marathon is changing course

History will be made on Sunday, May 6th at the 41st running of the BMO Vancouver Marathon with races selling out at the capped limit of 5,000 marathon and 10,000 half-marathon runners. Runners from nearly 50 countries will be part of the inaugural launch of the re-designed point-to-point courses.

The 2012 BMO Vancouver Marathon encompasses a combined total of 63 kilometres of some of the most stunning views and landmarks of Vancouver. The new courses begin at Queen Elizabeth Park, and finish downtown at the Convention Centre, which coincidentally will be hosting a Health, Sports & Wellness Expo. The last part of the course winds around Stanley Park before heading through Coal Harbour (east on Georgia Street, then Pender Street).

Though the two courses begin and end in the same locations, the journey for participants differs greatly and showcases different parts of the city of Vancouver. As they wind through eleven of Vancouver’s distinct neighbourhoods, runners of the Marathon and Half Marathon will witness some of the amazing natural beauty that surrounds the city of Vancouver, and because the courses are point-to-point, every kilometre yields new sights for runners and spectators to see.

More than 100 years after the very first Marathon event in Vancouver, the BMO Vancouver Marathon still presents its overall winner with the Chandler Trophy, named after William Chandler, the Marathon’s first champion, in 1909. On the event’s 40th anniversary in 2011, runners took to the course with a total of 3,225 finishers. This year, first place in both the men’s and women’s full marathon will receive a $3,000 prize.

We shot this video during last year’s event. Enjoy!

Posted in Vancouver Neighbourhood Highlights | Tagged , , ,

Greater Vancouver housing market maintains a steady spring pace

Written by Kimmins & Associates | May 2, 2012

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,799 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2012.

This represents a 13.2 per cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales recorded in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.

April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369.

“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,”

Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,056 in April 2012. This represents a 3.6 per cent increase compared to both March 2012 when 5,843 homes were listed and April 2011 when 5,847 homes were listed for sale on the region’s MLS®.

Last month’s new listing total was 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for April.

 

At 16,538, the total number of homes listed for sale on the region’s MLS® increased 8.5 per cent in April compared to last month and increased 16 per cent from this time last year.

“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type,”

Klein said

“To best understand conditions within your area of interest, it’s important to do your homework and consult a local REALTOR®.”

 

The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $683,800, up 3.7 per cent compared to April 2011 and an increase of 2.8 per cent over the last three months.

The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $612,000, which is a 3.4 per cent increase compared to April 2011 and a 2.6 per cent increase compared to three months ago.

 

 

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in April 2012 reached 1,126, a decline of 19.7 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, and a 17.8 per cent decrease from the 1,370 units sold in April 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,190 in April 2012, a decline of 0.9 per cent compared to the 1,201 sales in April 2011, and a decrease of 22 per cent compared to the 1,526 sales in April 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.1 per cent from April 2011 to $375,900.

Townhome property sales in April 2012 totalled 483, a decline of 22.3 per cent compared to the 622 sales in April 2011, and a 21.6 per cent decrease from the 616 townhome properties sold in April 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 1.7 per cent between April 2011 and 2012 to $487,300.

 

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged , ,

Bank of Canada holds interest rates but hints at increase

Written by Kimmins & Associates | April 17, 2012

This morning Mr. Carney and the Bank of Canada held the overnight lending rate at 1% as expected.  Watch Mortgage Dave‘s video analysis of the announcement below.

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged ,

Increased selection helps maintain balance in Greater Vancouver housing market

Written by Kimmins & Associates | April 3, 2012

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,874 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2012.

This represents a 12.9 per cent increase compared to the 2,545 sales recorded in February 2012, a decline of 29.6 per cent compared to the 4,080 sales in March 2011 and an 8.4 per cent decline compared to the 3,137 home sales in March 2010.

Residential Average Sale Price Graph - January 1977 to March 2012

Residential Average Sale Price Graph - January 1977 to March 2012

March sales in Greater Vancouver were the second lowest total for the month in the region since 2002 and were 16.8 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month. Continue reading →

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged , ,

Telus Garden condos sold out before formal release

Written by Kimmins & Associates | April 3, 2012

Telus has sold out the first condo development it has ever built, before a planned formal launch in mid-April, making it the second large Vancouver project to sell out almost instantly in the past month.

From The Globe and Mail:

But industry experts say that doesn’t necessarily mean that condo or general real-estate boom times are back.

Instead, they say, it is projects that are close to transit that are winning out.

“Transportation is the new green,” said Tracie McTavish, president of Rennie Marketing, which sold the PCI Marine Gateway project’s 415 units in a public launch mid-March.

That’s why projects like Marine Gateway, a tower that will be part of an office and entertainment complex at the foot of Cambie next to a Canada Line station, and Telus Garden, with 428 units in a 53-storey tower a block from Vancouver’s key downtown intersection, are being gobbled up at a rate not matched elsewhere in the region. Continue reading →

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged ,

Proximity to transit and ammenities drives quick condo sales

Written by Kimmins & Associates | March 29, 2012

Recently the Vancouver Sun published this story:

Recent Vancouver condo quick sales not sign of what’s ahead

Saturday’s four-hour blowout sale of 415 homes at Marine Gateway will be followed by similar quick sales at other condo towers this year, but don’t expect a return to the heady pre-recessionary days when every project sold out quickly.

That’s the word from an executive with real estate market firm MPC Intelligence, who said location, price and strong marketing are key for developing major consumer interest.

“The developer and marketing company did a really good job [with Marine Gateway],” said MPC senior manager Jeff Hancock. “It was the perfect storm to attract the type of buyer that’s still prolific in the market, Asian investors. The location had a huge impact and they priced the project right. They weren’t greedy.

“We’ll see it again in Metrotown, where there’s similar types of demand, because it’s near SkyTrain and close to amenities.”

Hancock also expects long lines at downtown Vancouver projects, including Telus’s condo tower that’s part of the telecommunication giant’s redevelopment of a city block.

. . .

Chris Colbeck, vice-president of sales and marketing for Townline, said their 134-unit, 22-storey Vancouver tower called 999 Seymour sold well when it was launched for the second time in February. Colbeck said the project was first launched in 2008, but taken off the market as the recession took hold. The latest launch, he said, was well received with investors making 60 per cent of buyers and owner-occupiers the other 40 per cent.

Meanwhile, Rennie Marketing Systems owner Bob Rennie said Marine Gateway sold out quickly because it’s an emerging area along the Canada Line and the condos were priced right.

“Any place you’ll see that type of absorption is in under-supplied segments of the market. If you have 12 townhouses on the water, they’ll line up because they’re rare.

“I don’t think people should think everything will be a sellout, unless it’s predominantly on the affordable side.”

. . .

Once again, Rennie has waved his magic wand and voila!

It’s tough to know whether the market can, and will continue to support the number of new condos being added to the overall housing inventory. Every time I open a paper right now, I read about another one of the big developers unveiling a further 500 or 1000 condo units along a transit line somewhere or in a close-in suburb. The question is, how will this effect pricing of existing condos?

I tend to believe there’s at least some degree of condo-overbuilding in the works right now, however, if you speak to Bob Rennie or any of the other eternal optimists, they will likely quote immigration numbers which suggest that there’s a growing need for additional housing units and that they will all be absorbed. Time will tell. The more pressing issue is how these additional units are effecting Downtown Vancouver’s resale condo market.

Given that many of the new units are targeting new home buyers at the lower price points, one would think that the effect would be limited to the bottom end of the downtown condo market but the fact is, there’s a trickle up effect. If prices come off at the lower end, so too will prices in the middle market and the high end is likely to follow. As Bob often says, “real estate is based on scarcity and right now, new condos are becoming a lot less scarce.”

The one things I can be sure of is that if you are a condo owner and you are thinking of selling at some point either now or in a few years, I would encourage you not to be too much on price increases over the next few years and I’d encourage you to consider selling sooner rather than later. Particularly if you are a non-resident who’s home currency has decreased against the CAD $. There is currently an attractive arbitrage on exchange rates but how long tat will continue is, again, just a guess. In the case of CAD $ versus USD $, many believe the CAD will shrink back to around 90 cents USD so it’s not a bad idea to cash out now.

Please don’t hesitate to contact Kimmins and Associates to discuss how we might help you maximize your investment dollars when it’s time to sell.

Posted in Vancouver Market Update | Tagged , , ,